{"id":5409,"date":"2024-06-12T19:28:57","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T19:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aitesonics.com\/microsofts-xbox-refresh-cant-compete-with-its-leaked-roadmap-121301282\/"},"modified":"2024-06-12T19:28:57","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T19:28:57","slug":"microsofts-xbox-refresh-cant-compete-with-its-leaked-roadmap-121301282","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aitesonics.com\/microsofts-xbox-refresh-cant-compete-with-its-leaked-roadmap-121301282\/","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft’s Xbox refresh can't compete with its leaked roadmap"},"content":{"rendered":"
Microsoft showed off three new Xbox models<\/a> yesterday at Summer Game Fest 2024, but anyone following the mass of leaks last year may have been surprised at how little changed for this mid-cycle refresh.<\/p>\n In case you didn\u2019t follow the FTC-Microsoft trial last year, things went pretty well for Microsoft, ending in the company acquiring Activision Blizzard. One thing that didn\u2019t go so well was redaction. Nestled among the court filings was a trove of internal documents, including one on the future of Xbox<\/a> \u2014 or at least, one potential future, considered by Microsoft in May 2022.<\/p>\n Xbox head Phil Spencer told the FTC in October 2022 that the Roadmap to 2030<\/a> document was \u201ca presentation from our devices organization to the gaming leadership team,\u201d and said he disagreed with some of its projections. The slide deck outlined the team\u2019s plan for its mid-cycle console refresh, codenamed Fairhaven, and its next-gen console. Essentially a pitch deck, then, comprising some things that were definitely happening and others that needed funding to become reality.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s look at what was (un)announced:<\/p>\n Chronologically, May 2024 was to be a debut month for Sebile, the codename for an all-new controller. Sebile would ship with new wireless tech, which the document referred to as \u201cXbox Wireless 2." More exciting for gamers, it would also have advanced haptics like the Switch and PS5 controllers, and a Stadia-like direct-cloud connection for reducing input latency on Xbox Cloud Gaming.<\/p>\n Then, Xbox\u2019s big summer \u201924 show (which in the real world happened yesterday) would bring a pair of new Xbox consoles. First, a cylindrical Xbox Series X redesign codenamed Brooklin, which was set to be a $500 2TB all-digital device with WiFi 6E, Bluetooth 5.2 and a Sebile controller packed in. Second, Ellewood, a $300 Series S refresh with 1TB of storage, with the same improved wireless connectivity and the Sebile controller, but no big redesign.<\/p>\n The document noted that all three of these devices were \u201cfunded\u201d but also gave two eventualities: one that would \u201climit Fairhaven investment\u201d and another that would deliver the \u201cfull Fairhaven vision.\u201d The former would pare down the new controller\u2019s features and cloud connections, but would supposedly include a new industrial design.<\/p>\n Fast forward to Summer Game Fest 2024, where we appeared to get neither of these futures. We already figured that the Series S wouldn\u2019t be refreshed, given Microsoft has been selling a $350 1TB version since last fall<\/a>. But Microsoft\u2019s vision for the Series X was unclear, and what we ended up with was a pretty weird pair of configurations: a 1TB all-digital Series X console priced at $450 and a 2TB special edition Series X with a disc drive, priced at $600. If there\u2019s improved wireless connectivity Microsoft hasn\u2019t mentioned it, and we\u2019ve currently heard nothing of Sebile; the new consoles were announced with standard Xbox controllers.<\/p>\n Taken alone, these are fine refreshes. But Microsoft was in the unenviable position of competing with not only Sony and Nintendo, but also itself, in the form of those leaked plans.<\/p>\n A $450 all-digital 1TB console and $600 2TB special edition are disappointing in comparison to Brooklin, the 2TB $500 all-digital console with a shiny new controller the leaked deck was pitching. The $450 console is almost a price increase, given Microsoft and third-party retailers regularly sell the original 1TB Series X for that price. (It should be mentioned that Sony has actually increased the price of the PlayStation 5, with the discless model priced at $450 vs. the $400 it cost at launch.) The $350 1TB Series S is essentially the same console we got last fall, but that too represents bad value compared to the leaked $300 refresh.<\/p>\n Plans change, especially plans dated May 2022. But how they change can give an idea of how Microsoft is thinking about Xbox right now. Back in 2022, Series X and S sales were broadly keeping pace with Xbox One. That is no longer the case. Estimates put the total number of Xbox Series consoles sold since the November 2020 launch between 28 and 29 million. Even in the US \u2014 Microsoft\u2019s strongest market by far \u2014 retail analysts Circana say the Xbox Series consoles are trailing Xbox One by 13 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n One particularly telling slide in the May 2022 document predicted 25-29 million of the mid-cycle consoles could be sold in three years. As of today, that would mean more-than doubling the lifetime sales of the platform. At the time, Microsoft\u2019s hardware team was probably not expecting sales to be as dismal as they currently are. Microsoft ended the last console generation with around 58 million Xbox One consoles sold, which was a marked decline from the 85-plus million Xbox 360s it moved.<\/p>\n Microsoft doesn't talk console sales figures unless it has something positive to say, but third-party analysis suggests a typical week for Xbox in 2024 involves moving 60-80K consoles, with Nintendo doubling that figure and Sony often tripling it. Put in plain words: Xbox falls further and further behind every week. It\u2019s unlikely we\u2019ll find out what Microsoft\u2019s expectations for the refreshed consoles are, but it\u2019s probably not 25-29 million.<\/p>\n The tough thing for team Xbox is Sony and Nintendo are broadly walking their own road and doing pretty well at it. Sony has sold 58 million PlayStation 5s and is preparing to launch a pro variant that will be significantly more powerful than the Xbox Series X. It\u2019s also opening up to publishing on PC and just announced a game that\u2019s coming to Nintendo Switch. Nintendo has sold over 140 million Switches, regularly outsells Xbox and has pre-announced a sequel console that will assumedly be able to handle current-gen games (including Call of Duty<\/a>!) with fewer cutbacks. Meanwhile, Microsoft is struggling to sell its existing consoles, faltering in its plan to grow Game Pass subscriptions and seemingly squashed its hardware team\u2019s dream of a bold mid-cycle refresh.<\/p>\n One thing it does have is game developers making games. Outside of the underwhelming new console SKUs, Microsoft\u2019s big Summer Game Fest was a reminder of just how much of the industry it now owns, and how many games it currently has in development. We got updates on Fable<\/em>, Perfect Dark<\/em> and the future of Gears of War. We got a new Call of Duty and a new Doom. There are still countless developers under its wing that don\u2019t have an \u201cannounced\u201d project, and big games previously announced that didn\u2019t make an appearance, like Marvel\u2019s Blade <\/em>from Arkane Lyon, The Outer Worlds 2 <\/em>from Obsidian, Everwild <\/em>from Rare and Hideo Kojima\u2019s OD. <\/em>Microsoft\u2019s game studios have a lot going for them, but with all of their titles coming to PC (and several to PlayStation and Switch) great games might not turn into great console sales.<\/p>\n Phil Spencer has spoken on last year\u2019s leaks a couple of times. He nearly-immediately took to Twitter to say that \u201cso much has changed<\/a>\u201d \u2014 which was clearly true, though maybe not for the better. Separately, he told a court something pretty wild about Microsoft potentially leaving the gaming business<\/a> if Game Pass didn\u2019t get a better mix of players by 2026 or 2027. Game Pass growth, as of February this year<\/a>, has been seriously tapering off, so\u2026 uh-oh?<\/p>\n I don\u2019t for a second think Microsoft would spend the best part of $100 billion on developers to exit gaming, but I do sincerely believe that its console business is on life support, and it doesn\u2019t need shiny new hardware to make a ton of money on gaming. The gaming leadership team that was pitched Sebile, Ellewood and Brooklin in May 2022 clearly agrees.<\/p>\n
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